Reasoning about the future
doom and beauty
pp. 427-439
Abstract
According to the Doomsday Argument we have to rethink the probabilities we assign to a soon or not so soon extinction of mankind when we realize that we are living now, rather early in the history of mankind. Sleeping Beauty finds herself in a similar predicament: on learning the date of her first awakening, she is asked to re-evaluate the probabilities of her two possible future scenarios.
Publication details
Published in:
Hartmann Stephan, Bovens Luc (2007) Bayesian epistemology. Synthese 156 (3).
Pages: 427-439
DOI: 10.1007/s11229-006-9132-y
Full citation:
Dieks Dennis (2007) „Reasoning about the future: doom and beauty“. Synthese 156 (3), 427–439.